It’s looking like the Shins’ Wincing The Night Away will debut at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week–the highest-placing first week for an album on an indie label since Thom Yorke’s The Eraser entered the chart at No. 2 in mid-July. Both were highly anticipated releases that experienced pre-release leaks; Yorke’s album scanned 90,000 copies in its first week, while some estimates have Wincing brushing the 100,000-sold mark. That number would have given the Shins an easy No. 1 on last week’s chart, which was led by the 65,000-copy moving Daughtry. Whether or not the album will stick around the top 10 for another week is up in the air, although Sub Pop is betting on continued strong sales, having shipped about 230,000 copies of Wincing to stores. If anything, there’s one important lesson for any labels with lofty ambitions: Even though sales have been soft and the teenpop trend has officially passed, ignoring the whims of sexually frustrated 15-year-old girls isn’t a solid strategy if you’re looking to have an album land at No. 1.
Building Album Sales Chart [Hits]
The HITS chart is about as reliable as Pitchfork’s taste department.
With respect, theHL, bullshit: the HITS chart may not be 100% accurate - Billboard and SoundScan do survey some retail accounts that don’t make HITS’ tally – but it’s generally 98% accurate. There is no way the official Billboard #1 tomorrow won’t be Pretty Ricky.
I have seen a few occasions where the HITS #1 album and Billboard’s have differed; it happened just last week, in fact. But it’s a rare enough occurrence, and it generally happens when #1 and #2 are separated by a couple thousand discs. With HITS reporting a gap of about a quarter-century, there’s no miracle that’s going to put the Shins at #1 tomorrow. I wish it were otherwise, but…forget it.
HITS is a shill pad lined with major label ad dollars that artists recoop for years after their shelflife. and their chart is shit.
Well, if theHL (bitter much?) is right about anything, it’s that the HITS chart is far from comprehensive. The final Billboard/SoundScan chart is out, and they have the Shins at 118,000, a staggeringly larger number from HITS’ 105K estimate.
Basically, I’m guessing that Billboard’s panel of small stores, which report to the chart but don’t necessarily have SoundScan accounts, made up the 12K-disc difference.
Still, the outcome is the same: Pretty Ricky at #1, with about 130K. Poneman must be kicking himself that he didn’t drop the Shins disc a week earlier.
Hits’ estimate was “brushing” 100,000. They were off by 18,000, roughly the same number in dollars it takes to buy HITS coverage.
Aaaand – the placement outcome was different, how?
Well, the difference between the Shins’ record and Yorke’s is that the Shins’ is actually, you know…good.
and by indie label you of course mean “only 49% major label”