Todd Martens of the Los Angeles Times is taking a midseason look at the contenders for the Grammy Awards’ fourth or fifth most prestigious award: Best New Artist, which has been given in the past to such luminaries as Paula Cole, Arrested Development, and A Taste Of Honey. Looking at all the exciting music produced by those who qualify for the award, it’s really anyone’s guess who will take home the prize next February. No wait, the winner’s definitely going to be Duffy, isn’t it?
Things obviously haven’t going so well for last year’s winner, Amy Winehouse. But the award has turned a bit of a corner after a rough run in the ’90s, with recent winners including Carrie Underwood, John Legend, and Maroon 5. Still, the winner often seems to be a little predictable once the nominees are announced (did anyone think Ledisi was going to win in February?), so take your best guess (Duffy) of who will win (Duffy) from this list (Duffy) compiled by Martens.
Leona Lewis
The Ting Tings
Katy Perry
Vampire Weekend
Estelle
Santogold
She & Him
MGMT
Lil Mama
Duffy
From that list, I think you can immediately forget about She & Him; Merge probably doesn’t carry the clout to pull of a win in a major category, even if the voters are taken in by what Martens describes as “a ’50s-influenced sound, evidenced by Disneyana in songs like ‘Why Do You Let Me Stay Here?’ ” Leona Lewis is generally the sort of act that does well at the Grammys, but without Clive Davis around to work the system in her favor, her pretty girl/good singer act might not be enough. MGMT, the Ting Tings, and Vampire Weekend are unlikely to stand too much of a chance besides a token nomination between them since one “rock” act usually grabs a nod (2008 example: Paramore).
Perhaps most intriguing is Santogold. Santi White been around the business for awhile and is doing an excellent job of turning her album into this year’s version of Moby’s Play, which can’t hurt executives who are wondering where their next revenue stream might come from. Although Santogold’s record itself seems on the verge of being too edgy for the notoriously stogy Grammy-voting bloc, she might be in the right place at the right time to pick up a few votes from those who want the Grammys to look hip.
Still, Martens hits the mark perfectly when describing Duffy’s chances of taking home the award.
Duffy’s vintage soul should be Grammy gold, if voters don’t shy away from lauding a U.K. soul star two years running. On her debut, “Rockferry,”…Also working in Duffy’s favor is her early success. Nearly two months after the album was released, it’s still in the top 20, which is an impressive feat for a newcomer….
She’s a perfectly inoffensive choice. Like Winehouse, Duffy’s retro-themed tunes recall an era more than stand on their own. There’s a bit more of a vagueness to an act like She & Him, a sense of familiarity that one can’t quite place, but Duffy’s appealingly sweet sense of song-craft works to her advantage.
Familiarity, vagueness, inoffensive appeal? Sounds like someone should clear a place on her mantel back in Wales.
Grammys midway Part 1: Estelle, Katy Perry and an early look at 2008’s notable new artists [LA Times]
Grammys midway Part 2: Duffy, Zooey, Santogold and more [LA Times]
@dyfl: I think “Bleeding Love” a great candidate for Record, but I’ve heard/read nothing to make me think that album helps her in any way.
Don’t be dissing Toto now.
This is great, because I get to say that I have struggled to come up with more than a handful of nominees for anything this year. I griped for most of 2007 about the lack of great music (of the variety I like, of course), and 2008 has started off even worse for me. There are only a handful of albums that I’ve really enjoyed, and I’m not sure any of them are Grammy nominee shoo-ins.
In this category (Best New Artist), I’m hoping there’s a blockbuster new artist release on the horizon, but I suspect there’s not, because new artists really need the whole year in order to build buzz.
Of the artists listed above, I’d agree with the sentiment in the post and comments that Duffy and Leona Lewis seem to be the most likely to at least be nominated. Either could defensibly win.
I’ll throw another name out there that I’m surprised the author missed: Jordin Sparks. Discuss.
@Rob Murphy: I might have mentioned it when I wrote up Al Green as the “Leak Of The Day” a while back, but I’m assuming he’ll win Album Of The Year.
No one’s mentioned OneRepublic? I’d think “Apologize” hanging on for as long as it did would at least put them in the running, although they may get dinged for their non-Timbaland-assisted hits not being as big. (Which is why I think Jordin Sparks is a non-starter for this category; her biggest hit was really saved by Chris Brown’s presence.)
@Rob Murphy: Also, and I can’t believe both the LAT dude and I missed this one: Miley Cyrus. Or how about The Jonas Brothers? Nominate either of those, lock them up as performers, and watch the ratings soar!
Also: Flo Rida.
Discuss.
@Rob Murphy: what about the jonas brothers’ first album?
also miley’s first album where she was billed as herself came out too early … june ‘07.
@Maura Johnston: True and all, but we know that Grammy is very loose in its definition of “new artist”. An artist seems to be eligible her entire career until she gets her first nom. And I’m pretty sure the eligibility criteria is not much more than “attained audience recognition in the eligibility period”. Exhibit A: Shelby Lynne. Also, Miley’s first “all-solo” album is due out before the end of the Grammy year, right? They could just hang the nom on that.
@Maura Johnston: Good point about a lack of a follow-up by OneRepublic. But I can easily see “Apologize” getting a nom for ROTY — it’s the most played song in radio history!!! — which would guarantee OneRepublic a nom for BNA.
How about another “long shot”: Sara Bareilles. Another “one-hitter” to date, but “Love Song” was also a massive radio hit with extended staying power across mutliple formats.
Leona Lewis
OneRepublic
Duffy
Vampire Weekend
Katy Perry
(Maybe insert Bareilles for either VW or Perry, but she probably peaked too early in the year.)
@Maura Johnston: @Rob Murphy: To the guy’s credit, he might have another post in the works in the series. Odd that OneRepublic wasn’t mentioned upfront, but then again, I can understand the appeal of spreading information over a week of blog posts.
If they give it to Katy Perry will that make her go away?
“Last year on this stage I was presented with the Best New Artist of the Year Award by Miss Karen Carpenter [applause]. And if that ain’t the kiss of death I don’t know what is.” –Bette Midler (maybe not the exact quote, but that’s how I remember it)
@Maura Johnston: Feist got a nom, no? That was four years after “Let It Die” and god knows how many after “Monarch”…
@rainmkr: Maybe at the BRITs, but not on this side, which is a shame because they’re actually the band I like best off the list.
I don’t mind Duffy- Distant Dreamer has totally thrown my on-principle hatred for her off-kilter- but I’d be peeved if she won.
@Dan Gibson: Maybe the posts are Idolator-commenter bait, and the guy’s actually fishing for suggestions from the most plugged-in music-industry-blog commenters on the ‘net.
The first post mentioned at the bottom that another post was on the way. I didn’t see anything like that in the second, so I wondered if he’d “finished” already.
I would guess that Estelle might be in this race if we do this again in September/November. Also The Ting Tings, if they’ve another gem up a sleeve.
@Rob Murphy: it’s the most played song in radio history!!!
MORON!
It may be “too late to apologize”, but…
Sorry, I mangled that. What I meant to say was, “…as of last December, ‘Apologize’ held the record for most radio spins in one week…”
Sadly, I fear that Flo Rida’s “Low” may have broken that record…
@Rob Murphy: more here:
[idolator.com]
a taste of honey is awesome! have you actually heard the album?
@bcapirigi: I guess I just prefer the Cars or Elvis Costello, who were both nominated that year. However, A Taste Of Honey might be better than Chris Rea, I’ll give you that. Toto, however, is a toss up.
@Dan Gibson: b-b-but:
Don’t forget one of my fave Best New Artist years ever: 1995. Sheryl Crow won against Ace of Base, Counting Crows, Crash Test Dummies, and Green Day. But Sheryl Crow and Counting Crows qualified (with hits, mind you!) for the year before. And Crash Test Dummies and Green Day both had records before, the former on a major label that spawned a minor hit! Only Ace of Base really counted. Further proof that the Grammys have got to be the most illegitimate awards around.
@Maura Johnston: Good point. Toto > A Taste Of Honey.
Also, ya’ll forgot Allannah Myles and Marc Cohn. And Christopher Cross. Or, rather, everyone did.
@Dan Gibson: WHAT?!?! that’s crazy talk.
Wait, we’re really going to talk about Best New Artist and not throw Vampire Weekend at the top of the heap.
I’m sorry, I liked “Mercy” the first ten times I heard it, but I can’t imagine listening to a lot more of that album. Winehouse she ain’t.
@Rock You Like An Iracane: Oh, I can’t stand Duffy (and I was on my dislike early), but I can’t imagine Vampire Weekend winning Best New Artist. They’ll probably get a nomination, but Evanescence is about as close to the edge as a winner is likely to get. Katy Perry’s more likely to win than VW.
TING TINGS!
I think you’re underestimating the force of the music industry’s palpable, painfully intense desire to make Leona Lewis a star The Old Fashioned Way. They want so badly to have another version of the thing they recognize in these dangerous, uncertain times that they’ll fall all over themselves to throw accolades at her.
Considering the history of this award, I’d only be half-surprised if Lil Wayne was nominated…
Hmmm,I am shocked…Yael Naim has way more talent than perhaps three of these so called “contenders” combinded.She writes her own lyrics,producers her songs,and has an incredible voice,with which she sings in THREE languages on her album,Yael Naim and David Donatien.So I think that giving someone who can truly be called an ARTISTS,would be just in the case of a prestigious accolade… Forgive the typing mistakes,I don’t know HTML if that’s what this is…
@Rob Murphy:
Rob, “Apologize” lost the CHR/Pop radio record to “Bleeding Love” in May of this year.
I think the overall cross-genre record is still held by Mariah Carey with “We Belong Toabutterflycult”.
@UKidol: I’m not surprised to hear about either of these songs being more played. Thx for the 411!