Who Will Be The Next Blog Rock Crossover Star?

20080228_she__him_33.jpgMany people find it hard to tell the great from the godawful when it comes to 21st-century mainstream rock. To help figure out which is which, here’s “Corporate Rock Still Sells,” where Al “GovernmentNames” Shipley examines what’s good, bad, and ugly in the world of rock and roll. This time around, he holds a few recent blog-rock darlings up to the harsh light of commercial rock radio, and judges their potential for success:

In my last two columns, commenters asked me to rate the radio potential of current indie rock favorites that haven’t yet made that crossover. (I’d follow Matos’ lead and avoid the I-word, if the distinction between well-informed-college-kid “indie” and mass-market-rock-radio “alternative” isn’t key here.) It was an intriguing idea, but one I greeted with some trepidation; criticizing music is one thing, evaluating its commercial prospects is a whole other can of worms.

So I’ll begin by saying that I’m probably the wrong guy to even try to make those calls for a number of reasons. I’ve always been pretty bad at predicting hits and flops, especially with rock radio, and I let my own judgment cloud my sense of popular opinion. Seven or eight years ago, I never would’ve guessed that Modest Mouse or Death Cab For Cutie would later become platinum bands with radio hits; they seemed to me like paragons of the tradition of indie bands just big enough to get signed to majors, but achieve no real mainstream profile. (Incidentally, as I wrote this I was making calls at work, and “I Will Possess Your Heart” was the hold music at one place–I’m still kind of mystified that that song’s limp attempt at ominous drama was such a home run with radio listeners.) I think of alt-rock programmers as largely lacking in imagination, so when I try to predict their moves, I tend not to reach or get creative. Even now, if you asked me to name bands on the cusp of radio breakthroughs, I’d probably just look to see who’s been on the cover of Alternative Press lately.

The “farm team” relationship between major labels and indie buzz bands isn’t what is used to be. One reason is that the American rock underground is stylistically much more diverse and far-reaching than it was in the ’90s, when the ever-expanding variety of guitar bands was xxed by the fact that they were still all guitar bands. Another is that the bar for independent label success is higher than ever, but mainstream radio remains one of the last gatekeepers that’s strongly beholden to major labels. It’s now possible for an indie band to have a gold album, get on the cover of Spin, travel the late-night talk circuit, and have a video on MTV without making the jump to a major. But until that leap happens, odds are there isn’t enough marketing muscle to grease all the palms and mail out all the promos that it takes to get even a moderate amount of radio airplay.

Still, I trolled for suggestions from Idolator readers, most of which were bands I’d heard of many times in the course of my daily music press browsing, but hadn’t actually heard. I’m pretty old-fashioned as far as indie rock goes: I go to shows and check out new (mostly local) bands all the time, and I buy records by artists I’ve been a fan of for years and years already, not really bothering to check out the endless parade of unappetizing band names in the Pitchfork hype cycle. Unless, like Vampire Weekend and MGMT, those bands actually get some airplay and I have to cover them in this space. So with all those caveats in mind, here are my opinions on a few blog darlings, with their potential for alt-rock radio crossover judged on a scale from one to five Dave Grohls:

Tokyo Police Club – “Tesselate”

I have to confess, it was at most a month ago that I realized that this band and Tokio Hotel were two totally different things. More accents–this time, it’s a phony one adopted by a Canadian singer! Let’s face it: Fake Brit accents don’t get you far on U.S. rock radio, unless your name is Billie Joe Armstrong.
Two and a half Grohls.

Fleet Foxes – “Whyte Winter Hymnal”

This is kind of nice, I guess. Way too college radio to be in serious contention, though.
Two Grohls.

The Hold Steady – “Sequestered In Memphis”

I remember then-Pitchfork writer Tom Breihan took me to see The Hold Steady right after his review of their second album had run, which gave me a chance to see a band almost at the exact moment when the buzz around it was cresting into some serious career momentum. And I really tried to give them a chance. But eventually, I realized I have some pretty serious contempt for this band, possibly because I’ve spent to much of the past few years listening to the kind of ’70s rock they’re ostensibly so inspired by that I can’t help but notice how those comparisons are kind of horseshit. Maybe they’ve started to feel guilty about not actually sounding anything like the E Street Band like Rolling Stone said they would, because it sounds like they’re pushing horns and piano up way higher in the mix than the last time I’d heard them. In any event, alternative radio has always had a soft spot for amelodic talk rock, but I don’t think these guys could be the next Cake.
One and a half Grohls.

No Age – “Eraser”

Someone was serious with this suggestion?
One Grohl.

She & Him – “Why Don’t You Stay Here”

I have to admit I swooned a little the first time I saw Zooey Deschanel sing “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” in Elf. So when she formed a band and released a record on Merge, I figured it’d better than the average singing actress vanity project, or at least well sung. There’s something about her voice on this song–especially on those harmonies at the end–that makes me grit my teeth in repulsion. Still, if enough radio programmers look at the promo pic and mistake Deschanel for Katy Perry, this could rack up a lot of spins.
Two and a half Grohls.

Black Kids – “I’m Not Gonna Teach Your Boyfriend How to Dance with You”

This sounds fairly radio-ready, considering a fair amount of bands with the same kind of emo-by-way-of-Robert-Smith pinched vocal style have made it big. If I heard this out of context I really would’ve pegged these guys as more Warped Tour stalwarts than (former) Pitchfork darlings. They could probably get a big hit, if they don’t break up first.
Four and a half Grohls.

 
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  1. Anonymous  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    I agree with you on Fleet Foxes. It’s WAAAAAAY to sleepy sounding to ever make a dent on rock radio. Maybe Triple A in the future? If they come up with a half a hook I’m sure Hot AC’s in C-markets will give it a spin or so at 1am on Tuesday.

    Black Kids are one of those bands that I don’t really see making it to the “red” alt-rock stations (the ones that have to play the song in order for it to see inside the top 10 basically). I have a feeling most listeners will find it a little off-putting to have some faux-Brit dance band barking about some girls boyfriend (while trying not giggle) in between plodding songs by Seether and Three Days Grace.

    If The Hold Steady dude got some vocal lessons (you know, so he could have a little melody in his voice) they might have a fair shot since they are quirky enough for the blue stations and sign about beer (red stations).

  2. Al Shipley  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    Yeah, it kind of goes without saying that getting onto Triple A stations is a much more reasonable goal than Modern Rock for most of these bands. I’ve thought about widening the net to cover that chart in this column, too, but that would more be to indulge my love of dad rock than to be more inclusive of indie-ish bands.

  3. Anonymous  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @Al Shipley: Interesting idea. BTW, do Triple A stations only exist in small markets? NYC doesn’t have one but there is a small one in Westchester (about 30-40 min outside the city). You’ll hear Snow Patrol, Sheryl Crow, etc.

  4. Al Shipley  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @2ironic4u: I don’t know the numbers offhand, but there’s definitely way fewer Triple A stations than other rock formats, so there’s probably some big markets without one. There’s a list of stations on Wiki:

    [en.wikipedia.org]

  5. El Zilcho!  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    WFNX in Boston has been playing “Sequestered in Memphis” somewhat regularly, but I don’t see it crossing over to the other stations in town. Besides, they spin Vampire Weekend and MGMT much more. They had been playing Black Kids, but I think that faded away, it just didn’t take.

  6. dog door  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    I just get the feeling that if the Hold Steady were going to blow up, it would have been from Boys & Girls in America. The songs and hooks were so so so much stronger on that album. Still kind of blows my mind how Stuck Between Stations, You Can Make Him Like You and First Night weren’t massive, massive hits.

  7. DocStrange  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    All of those bands are fine (yes, screw you, I like She & Him), but my bet is Los Campesinos!, a great little band from Wales who I heard and immediately liked them (I don’t read Pitchfork reviews, ever). You folks’ll probably despise the everloving out of them because they’re twee, actually use a glockenspiel as their lead instrument and have seven members. My local alternative station is only playing Tokyo Police Club, Black Kids and She & Him (the latter because She & Him played the Newport Folk Festival and they were pretty good), they also play alot of MGMT and Vampire Weekend (dear god do I love WBRU). I liked No Age and Fleet Foxes (they tried playing them on this program they have where they play five songs and you have to vote to pick which one gets added to the rotation and the voters picked the terrible emo group There for Tomorrow instead). Also, I must warn you that “Tessellate” is the WORST song Tokyo Police Club has EVER done. “Cheer It On” and “In A Cave” are much better.

    Oh, the next Cake is officialy Flobots. Just giving you a heads up. They even have a trumpet player.

  8. DocStrange  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @Al Shipley: Yes, Triple A is a godsend for indie bands (Current indie band du jour on Triple A: My Morning Jacket) and as an indie loving chart goon, I like that Billboard now has a Triple A chart. Technically, stations like WBRU and WFNX are Triple A leaning alternative charts. They play alot of Triple A leaning music, new music and local music as opposed to the emo (there’s some of that too, tho) and chest beating rawk that belongs on active stations (the only exceptions seem to be any band remotely involved with System of a Down)

  9. DocStrange  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    One more thing: Remember if Airborne Toxic Event and The Whigs can manage heavy radio airplay on Alternative radio, than any of these can.

  10. Anonymous  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    The Hold Steady are the best band in this bunch. The guy’s voice has character and is the ONLY voice out of this batch that is recognizable. All the other vocals sound like everybody else.

  11. The Illiterate  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @2ironic4u: Craig Finn has had voice lessons–not that he needs them, since there’s more music and melody in his word choice, rhyme schemes, and phrasing than just about any singer/songwriter I can think of.

  12. Anonymous  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @The Illiterate: I completely enjoy The Hold Steady. However, as a singer, there is much to be desired.

  13. Anonymous  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @DocStrange: FNX and BRU aren’t really indicative of alternative/modern rock radio. They both reside in more liberal areas of the country and, thus, have a more liberal playlist.

    The main reason bands like Foo Fighters, Chili Peppers, Green Day, etc. continue to dominate is because they are pretty much the only artists that both the indie/blog-leaning and active-leaning stations can agree upon.

    With this is mind, most station owners feel like they probably can’t turn a profit and sell ads if they are playing artists that only a small, small, small fragment of the audience likes.

    On a personal note, I really wish we had a BRU/FNX type station here in NYC, because, if any place needs one, it’s here.

  14. RaptorAvatar  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @The Illiterate: Exactly, what makes Craig Finn good has way more to do with why Nas is good than why The Beatles are good.

    @DocStrange: If they have a single with a decently heavy riff on their upcoming one (2 LPs in a year!) it could make a dent. Based on what they’ve done so far, they strike me as more of an indie 103 thing than a KROQ thing. Their LP might still be my favorite album I’ve heard this year though.

  15. MayhemintheHood  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    This is an interesting topic and article, but to be honest, it’s the first “Corporate Rock Still Sells” i’ve ever read. That being said, I was wondering what you guys mean by Triple A stations? I live in southern California…any example of a triple A station around here?

  16. BakerStreetSaxSolo  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    that Black Kids song was a minor hit in the UK charts, it’s definitely the pick of that bunch for commercial success

  17. Defenestrated  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @DocStrange: I love the kids in Los Campesinos! and really want them to do well, but they’ve been a pretty hard sell over here in the US. Their lyrics are often clever, but not really suitable to a lot of radio airplay for a bunch of reasons, and I think Gareth’s vocals have waaay too much of a welsh-yarbly quality for them to be palatable to much of the US audience.

    Also, I was under the impression that the Black Kids were already getting at least a modicrum of radio airplay (yes, outside of NPR even).

  18. heyzeus  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    The Black Kids song is already on modern rock radio. And to me, it sounds like “Somebody Told Me” v. 2.0. Meaning it should be a hit.

    If there’s any justice, the next Okkervil River album will produce an alt rock hit…if even a minor one.

  19. Al Shipley  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @MayhemintheHood: Triple A = Adult Album Alternative. I linked the Wikipedia entry about it upthread, which has a list of stations. It’s been a growing radio format for a few years but Billboard just gave it its own chart last month. This column is usually not about the kind of bands discussed in this particular article, if you look at previous ones in the archive I’m generally tracking more mainstream stuff.

  20. Defenestrated  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @heyzeus: Indeed, “Lost Coastlines” off their latest pretty much blew me away.

    Another band I like to plug whenever I get the chance is Operator Please. For my money, they’re my favorite female driven power pop group out there right now, and pretty much unknown here in the states.

    Maybe their frontwoman doesn’t have the classic MTV friendly looks, but I think they definitely have the sound for a possible crossover. They’re also SUPER young, and I really hope they keep it up, I’m expecting great things.

  21. MayhemintheHood  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @Al Shipley: Sorry, I didn’t see that link at first. Thanks.

    I was going to mention 100.3 here in Los Angeles, as i’ve been listening to that station lately and they seem to play stuff like 80’s and classic rock deep cuts, with some newer, indie bands(sorry…alternative). Sure enough, they are on that Wikipedia list. I guess i’ve been listening to a triple A station.

    As far as an “indie” band with radio potential, everyone i’ve played Born Ruffians for goes nuts for it, regardless if they’re the music snob or more KROQ leaning music fan.

  22. BaseballBookshelf  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @DocStrange: It’s funny, this is the only Tokyo song I’ve liked. Different strokes, etc. It’s my favorite of the bunch, and might fit into the guilty pleasure of kids too cool for school … then again, it might just remind them of their math homework.

    As for She & Him, I shared the same opinion as the author until I heard them perform live on Sound Opinions. No “hits,” but certainly something to see in person.

  23. cassidy2099  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    I don’t think the Hold Steady will ever cross over because Craig Finn is a bad singer who is having a good time. Angst kids, angst. Ever see those Linkin Park kids smile? No, they sit on space shuttles and frown!

    Note: I hate the Hold Steady, so while I despise most of what populates modern rock radio, knowing that I’ll never stumble on a Steady song while surfing channels makes it a little easier to sleep at night.

  24. D.R. Mosby  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    “Sequestered In Memphis” is getting regular airplay on 100.3/”The Sound” here in L.A., but I haven’t heard them play “I’m Not Gonna Teach…” – at least not yet. “I’m Not Gonna Teach…” is getting airplay on Morning Becomes Eclectic and Indie 103.1, but maybe Black Kids are a little too weird for AAA tastes.

  25. DocStrange  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @2ironic4u: Exactly my point. I made this point before. I have no clue what other actual alternative formatted stations sound like because the only two I can get on my car stereo here in the Ocean State are great stations that are experimental with their playlist and aren’t owned by media giants (WBRU is owned by Brown University, WFNX is owned by The Boston Phoenix, an alternative (rock, not lifestyle) newspaper). These two stations are beloved by local rock fans because they will play bands as far reaching and random as Mindless Self Indulgence, Biffy Clyro, The Swell Season (or whatever those “Falling Slowly” kids are calling themselves now), The Walkmen and local bands. I’m in a great radio listening spot, ain’t I?

    @BakerStreetSaxSolo: Minor? It hit #11. That’s hardly minor and besides, the UK charts are a different animal than the US charts. Radio airplay has no effect on the charts and its solely sales driven.

    @MayhemintheHood: “Triple A” means “Adult Album Alternative”. It’s kind of a mix between Alternative radio, Adult Contemporary radio and whatever is being played over the speakers at Urban Outfitters.

    @Defenestrated: Los Campesinos! are a hard sell everywhere. I swore that a song as fantastic as “You! Me! Dancing!” would’ve been a huge hit in the UK, where indie rock can get into the Top 40 easily, but it wasn’t. I think the highest they got with a single was like 192 or something like that.

    @Defenestrated: Ah, Operator Please. Another band I like. Sadly they just ditched their cute keyboardist because she’s (from rumors i’m hearing) a nymphomaniac. Also listen to “A Lesson in Crime” again. It’s excellent.

    @BaseballBookshelf: (I’m responding to everyone ain’t I?) My love of She & Him actually starts with the fact I believe Zooey Deschanel is the single most beautiful woman on the planet (yes, I go for “cute” over “super beautiful”) but i’m happy that the CD is pretty good and they were fantastic at the Newport Folk Festival.

  26. Al Shipley  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @DocStrange: Maura, is this a new record for most “@” responses in a single comment?

  27. DocStrange  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @Al Shipley: I kind of knew it. Wait the most LEGITIMATE “@” or overall. Because I suspect someone had to do some random “yes” or “no”’s to everyone’s responses before.

  28. Anonymous  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    the key to crossover success has less to do with sound than with
    appeal to
    (1) teenagers who spend their parents money on music and have the
    motivation to (a) actually buy albums/mp3 (b) be hip and unique like
    all their friends (c) spend their parents money with little
    discrimination …. this is the Black Kids equation, who i saw
    recently and truthfully exceeded my admittedly low expectations … or
    (2) 60’s centric baby-boomers who are still trying to keep it real and
    throw money at anything that even sounds familiar (Hold Steady!!!)

    popularity among 18-28 year-olds has zero relevance to mainstream
    success

  29. Chris Molanphy  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    I’m just jumping in belatedly to compliment Al on the super-apt use of the Grohls® song-rating scheme.

    What would be the opposite of a Grohl? A Björk?

  30. Al Shipley  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @Chris Molanphy: If I had the time, energy or technical knowhow, believe me, I would’ve made little Grohlhead/half Grohlhead graphics for this thing.

  31. DocStrange  |   Posted on Aug 29th, 2008

    @Chris Molanphy: no Bjork has been successful on the US Modern Rock tracks. The opposite would be a Jarvis (as Pulp, as brilliant as they are, have come close to but never have had a song in the Modern Rock Top 40)

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