Tonight, the Grammys try to stoke some excitement for their February broadcast—and the record industry in general—with an hour-long nomination special featuring Taylor Swift, John Mayer, the Foo Fighters (above), and Christina Aguilera, among others. We’ll be right here at 9 p.m. ET—right before the Victoria’s Secret Cross-Promotional Chance To Show Cleavage In Prime Time—to liveblog the whole affair, and to switch the channel to Top Chef as soon as possible once everything’s over. To whet your appetite for this year’s festivities, and to stoke a little argument, I’ve placed a few predictions regarding the big categories after the jump. (Warning: Lots of Coldplay ahead!)
RECORD OF THE YEAR
Leona Lewis, “Bleeding Love”: Because it sounds like something Whitney would have recorded back in the day, or something Mariah should have put on E=MC2. Plus, it was completely inescapable.
Alicia Keys, “No One”: Even I am unable to resist that “oh-oh-oh-oh-oh” breakdown at the end. So, thanks to this song being relegated to the R & B categories last year, I forgot that it had already been nominated. But can we say that “Like You’ll Never See Me Again” will take its place? Yes? OK.
Coldplay, “Viva La Vida”: The closest thing to a U2 song this year can rustle up. Plus, that iTunes ad was so pretty!
Katy Perry, “I Kissed A Girl”: Typing this pains me on every level. But it’ll probably get at least one nod thanks to its running-everyone-over success.
Lil Wayne, “A Milli”: Ha ha, just kidding. But wouldn’t a big old medley with everyone who ever laid down a verse over the track really shake up this year’s ceremony?
SONG OF THE YEAR
Alicia Keys, “No One” “Like You’ll Never See Me Again”: She’s an artist, you know.
Leona Lewis, “Bleeding Love”: If this song doesn’t get nominated in both “big song” categories, I will be shocked.
Coldplay, “Viva La Vida”: The closest thing to a U2 song this year can rustle up.
Jason Mraz, “I’m Yours”: A slow-burn hit by a singer-songwriter? Sure, why not.
Yael Naim, “New Soul”: Yeah, I know—an iTunes one-hit wonder who will probably be a punchline on Best 2008 Ever soon enough. But I have a weird feeling about this one.
ALBUM OF THE YEAR
Coldplay, Viva La Vida: The obvious choice, and the likely winner. Hope Chris Martin has his extra hand-Sharpies ready!
Radiohead, In Rainbows / The Eagles, Long Road Out Of Eden: Two rock heavyweights, two big retail stories of last autumn (don’t forget how Billboard changed its rules on single-store exclusives in the wake of Eden’s success). Paired because probably only one of them will get a nod. (And it’ll probably be the damn Eagles.)
Alicia Keys, As I Am: She should get points off for that awful bit of James Bond-branded yelling her and Jack White tried to pass off as a song earlier this year, but alas.
Ne-Yo, Year Of The Gentleman: I’m totally showing my cards here, because I love this album, but I really do think that its maturity and top-notch songwriting will fare well with voters. And don’t underestimate the fact that it actually hung in there, sales-wise.
Metallica, Death Magnetic: This album seems to be showing up on lots of year-end “best-of” lists by people who don’t specialize in writing about metal, which would seem to be something of a leading indicator, no? Plus, everyone loves a good “we’re sorry” story.
BEST NEW ARTIST
Duffy: We’ve been over this already.
Leona Lewis: The last gasp of the old model.
Adele: A dark horse, sure, but the overwhelming response to her Saturday Night Live appearance a few months back makes me wonder if her overall presence doesn’t get a lot of people right in the gut. (19 is actually quite good.)
Estelle: Shine is actually her second album, but technicalities like that never seemed to matter to Grammy voters before. Plus, Shine is kind of awesome.
Santogold: As Dan noted, her self-titled album is becoming the 2008 equivalent of Play, for better or worse. And having friends in the business certainly can’t help her getting at least a nod.
BEST ALTERNATIVE MUSIC ALBUM
Radiohead, In Rainbows: Well, duh.
Kind of pointless to list the other nominees, because there’s no way this doesn’t win this category, right? Unless there’s a sudden groundswell for Gnarls Barkley, although I’d think that they’ll probably get tossed a lot of music-video related love instead:
(Pity the song doesn’t really go anywhere, eh?)
51st Grammy Awards [CBS.com]
After the Herbie Hancock win last year — the most embarrassing big win in the Grammys’ 50-year history (no, I haven’t forgotten Christopher Cross or Toto IV, or Milli Vanilli) — I’m finding it hard to muster any enthusiasm for this shit.
It’ll be all Plant and Krauss.
Don’t be surprised — and I’m serious — to see “three-time Grammy winner Fergie” get a nod or two in the rock categories for her cover of “Barracuda”. That would give Grammy a great opportunity to bring the Wilson sisters in to reprise their “Idol Gives Back” collabo, in one of Grammy’s beloved inter-generational duet-mashup thingies.
As much as I know Maura is pulling for “Cherry Chapstick”, I think a couple of other good choices for ROTY nods include “Disturbia” and “Forever”.
SOTY: “Bleeding Love”? Jesse McCartney & Ryan Tedder (OneRepublic) FTW!
For BNA, I’m not sure I see both Adele and Duffy getting nods. No offense to anyone, because I really like both records, but they’re just too similar as artists. This category always has some diversity, as Grammy wants to hedge its bets so it can say down the line, “we knew he/she/they was/were the real deal.” How about: the Jonas Brothers?
As self-masturbating as the Grammys are, I would definitely bet on an Eagles victory, exactly after a rendition of “Hotel California” featuring Taylor Swift.
.::shudder::.
“Wow! An award statue! Oh… It’s just a Grammy…” (tosses Grammy over edge of balcony)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nod to Sara Bareilles’ “Love Song” in one of the big song categories (caveat: I didn’t check to see if it was eligible) - Grammy voters love girls with pianos.
I thought Al Green would get nominated, for the “We have to give lots of nominations to someone really old, so that we can go on and on about how legendary they are even though we never particularly gave them credit when they were young” slot in every category.
Although, you know, some people have actually heard the Al Green album, so maybe that disqualifies it?
Also, In Rainbows might make album of the year over the Eagles. After all, Grammy people have altered the rules for Radiohead before (the year Kid A got nominated).
@PhishsBrevity: The Be Sharps did totally deserve their Grammy for Outstanding Soul, Spoken Word, Or Barbershop Album Of The Year
“Like You’ll Never See Me Again” is a great song. eh, provided you don’t hear the version with a Ludacris verse tacked on for no reason (hey, i got nothin’ against ‘Cris, but he just sounds completely out of place on this one).
All I know is that if Brokencyde doesn’t cop any nominations, I refuse to have anything to do with the Grammys.
@Rob Murphy: That would be awesome. But the Jonases will surely get shafted, as usual.
I sort of feel they are more likely to see honors from acts they produce (y’know they are one their second…or the first for their own “mini label” as one of them described it). So far nothing great, but, maybe in the future.
What is the real difference between SOTY and ROTY?
@ObtuseIntolerant: song of the year is just for the composer.
I could see Beck defeating Radiohead in the Alternative Music category before Gnarls Barkley. Those are three of your nominees, along with Vampire Weekend (token new act who won’t win) and the Raconteurs. Unless two-time category winners Coldplay are bounced back to Alternative (they were in rock for “X&Y”) thanks to “Viva”’s “experimental” tracks.
I could also see Vampire Weekend getting a surprise Best New Artist nod.
@Maura Johnston: Thank you! That makes sense.
I bet if they just re-ran last year’s Grammy ceremony again this year, few would notice.
“Alicia Keys, “No One”: Even I am unable to resist that “oh-oh-oh-oh-oh” breakdown at the end.”
Can she win for this song two years in a row? I’m pretty sure she got a trophy for this at last year’s ceremony. As I Am was a November disc right, so the single just barely made it in time for eligibility for last year’s awards ceremony. Then again I could be wrong and stop giving such a damn about the Grammys.
@Tauwan: doh. you’re right! she won for the r & b categories. my “block every event that i liveblog from my brain” tendencies strike again.
@Tauwan: Indeed, “No One” won two Grammys earlier this year, for Best Female R&B Vocal Performance and Best R&B Song (thanks, always-right Wikipedia!) It should not be eligible for any awards this year.
@Maura: Good picks, but I’d place a big bet on Plant & Krauss getting AOTY (Raising Sand) and ROTY (”Killing The Blues”) nods. The album was released three weeks in to the beginning of the nomination year, and the song was a 2008 release.
The Plant/Krauss/Burnett collabo is solid-platinum Grammy bait, and Grammy will take that bait.
@Maura Johnston:
One obvious Album of the Year entry you left out: Robert Plant and Alison Kraus. The single was Grammy eligible last year, the album this year. It’s a lock and will take over for Metallica. And the Eagles will definitely get the nod over Radiohead.
Otherwise, I think you’re on target with all your predictions.
here’s a long-shot dark-horse yet wouldn’t-be-that-surprising AOTY bet: Juno soundtrack
Nailed it! Sorta.