Idolator

Ed. note: Chris "dennisobell" Molanphy, our resident chart guru, looks at the upward, downward, and lack of movement on this week's Billboard charts:

If you're trying to guess what might end up as Billboard's top song of 2008, you might take a gander at this week's Hot 100, where a prime contender is still sitting in the top three after peaking months ago.

That would be Leona Lewis' "Bleeding Love," the neo-diva ballad that's outlasted anything her role model Mariah Carey has released so far this year. According to Nielsen SoundScan, which released its (mostly dismal) midyear report this week, Lewis' smash is the top-selling single for the six-month period beginning Dec. 31 and ending June 29.

That doesn't necessarily make the Lewis track a lock for the year's top prize, due to some technicalities which I'll discuss momentarily. But there is one thing that makes "Bleeding Love" emblematic of 2008: it's an undeniable smash single which has proven tough for the artist to follow up.

Ed. note: Chris "dennisobell" Molanphy, our resident chart guru, looks at the upward, downward, and lack of movement on this week's Billboard charts:

Forget what I said last week: apparently there was pent-up demand for new Usher material.

Even after three intervening years that saw little more than a flop vanity movie and some wedding-related tabloid embarrassment, Mr. Raymond remains beloved by pop and R&B radio and, most importantly, consumers—198,000 iTunes buyers can't be wrong.

Ed. note: Chris "dennisobell" Molanphy, our resident chart guru, looks at the upward, downward, and lack of movement on this week's Billboard charts:

* OK, so one of these acts is, like, president of the United States and the other the president of American Samoa. I'll get to the White Stripes later...

Yesterday on Idolator, Maura brought up a subject I've been downplaying here since 2008 began: mediocre pop-rapper Flo Rida's depressing death grip on Billboard's Hot 100. Mostly, I've avoided a deep discussion of his T-Pain-assisted No. 1 smash "Low"—now in its 10th week atop the chart, matching last winter's run by Beyoncé's "Irreplaceable"—because there's not much to tell. Its sales have been massive since fall, it has led in radio airplay since mid-January, and no single has seriously challenged it for No. 1 all winter.

But as Maura noted, we'll have to pay mind to Mr. Rida now that his followup single, the Timbaland-assisted "Elevator," is making a fast break up the chart. The thought that "Low" would be succeeded by another Flo Rida song is enough to make one swear off Billboard forever.

Don't despair. There are a lot of ways for this story to play out, and I'd say it's less than 50-50 that Uncle Flo will succeed himself at the top. Let's run down some scenarios.