The Mouse has already started spraying its firehose of promotional power over its boxed-in kiddie demographic: Two songs from the soundtrack are currently in the Radio Disney top five, and last night's London premiere of the flick was accompanied by reports that UK advance ticket sales had broken records two weeks out from the film's release. But still, there's something nagging at me about the soundtrack's prospects, what with ever-plummeting album sales, the aging of both the High School Musical demographic and the show's stars, and the brief, unfortunate forays into solo careers by HSM staples Vanessa Hudgens and Ashley Tisdale. I asked chart guru Chris Molanphy for his thoughts:

Here's a question: how did "the base" like the songs on HSM2? (I have no idea — I have few tweens in my life right now.) The debut week of an album is typically a referendum on the perceptions of the previous product. For Those About to Rock goes to No. 1 because everyone loved Back in Black; Kid A goes to No. 1 because of the long, slow growth of OK Computer; etc. If HSM2—which sold in a quick burst—is less beloved by the fanbase than HSM was (and I'm not even factoring in kids aging out of the franchise), then HSM3 could surprise on the downside.

Judging by the (pretty unscientific) method of looking at user reviews on Amazon and iTunes, enthusiasm is high (the 3,914 iTunes reviews average four stars; the 94 on Amazon average four and a half), and "You Are The Music In Me" got a pretty big reception when Jess and I went to the High School Musical ice show. So maybe it's not the songs per se as much as the association kids have with them.

But what I think will be even more of a factor than the music, or the American populace's incrasing distaste toward buying albums (seriously, even Miley Cyrus is going the cheapo rush-reissue route), or the continued fallout from Hudgens' misdirected nude shots, even more than is the current economic climate, and how HSM3's theatrical release is forcing people who want to see it to head to the local multiplex and plunk down $10, instead of just hunkering down for a night in with the Disney Channel on the tube and some snacks on the coffee table. Sure, Hollywood in particular has been banking on the entertainment industry being "recession-proof" because of their ability to entertain in times of crisis, but the mood of the country is a lot darker now than it was in even August, let alone the relatively frothy moment when High School Musical and sequel No. 1 came out. If tightening belts result in a choice having to be made between the movie and the soundtrack, which will win? Something tells me that it won't be the item that can be easily picked up via a 10-minute session of hunting around Google for a Rapidshare link, but maybe I'm wrong.

"I tell girls all the time: 'Don't post your private business for the world to see!'" she said. "You just have to be careful."

True enough! In fact, it's never a bad time to post this PSA as a general reminder to boys and girls alike:

Hudgens said the scariest part was not having her Disney owned-and-operated junk end up on every celebrity nudie pic clearinghouse on the Internet, but fessing up to her parents, who we guess didn't know how to use Google. "Well everyone can be naked if they want to," her moms reportedly replied to the news. Didn't you watch the PSA, Mrs. Hudgens??

Hudgens Comes Clean About Nude Pics [MSNBC; HT Jon Solomon]

^* Look, sometimes she's looks normal and sometimes she looks like she should be battling a Skeksis. Just sayin'.

What could be most affected would be the purchase by grownups for kids factor. What you see on certain holidays is kid-freindly albums, like Kidz Bop and so forth, getting a boost from Aunt Flo sticking a CD in little Kaitlyn's Easter basket, etc.—but there's really only one adult-gives-CD-to-kid holiday left in the year, and that's Santa Day. So one question for Disney is, will this Hudgens thing have blown over by then, because part of the whole success of High School Musical is its appeal to grownups who can't believe their luck that their 13-year-old is loving such squeaky-clean music.

But the other thing the first HSM showed is that tweens have come of age in terms of purchasing decisions. The first sign that it was gonna be huge, back in January 2006, was when it topped the iTunes chart before the physical CD was even in stores. It could be argued that those sales were from young Kaitlyn buying the digital album for her own iPod, because Aunt Flo (or even digi-clueless Mom) wasn't doing that for her. If kids are dying for HSM 2, they're already bought it.

What could really hurt Disney, though, is the school effect. The kids that are buying HSM 2 in, like, week five are the ones who needed to go back to school and be swayed by their friends gushing about it. But now they're also hearing about the pictures, or Mom already did. So: kid goes home, asks her parents for the CD, the parents say, "We heard about that girl—no way," and...

Late-blooming Kaitlyn has to get her friend to dupe the CD for her, rather than buying.

"HSM" Nude Pic: It's the Real Deal! [TMZ]
Vaness Hudgens Is (Probably Not) Naked [Fleshbot, NSFW]