.jpg "This Year, \"American Idol\" Will Be Won By A Dude Named David (But You Knew That Already)")
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Ed. note: Chris "dennisobell" Molanphy, our resident chart guru, looks at the upward, downward, and lack of movement on the Billboard Hot 100 in the latest installment of "100 And Single":
For the first time in its three-month chart life, Alicia Keys' "No One" sells fewer digital singles than it did the week before. But that's no problem, as her continued radio dominance means she's still tops on Billboard's Hot 100—even as one song given up for dead starts to make a comeback.
Radio to Timba - All Apologies: At No. 2 for the second time in its chart run, "Apologize" by Timbaland and underperforming chart debutantes OneRepublic earns a belated bullet thanks to radio, which hasn't given up on the squishy ballad yet. "Apologize" set two consecutive records for total weekly plays on Top 40 radio; in the most recent week, it was spun more than 10,200 times by stations in that format. With only a few hundred totally pure Top 40 stations in the whole country, that's a buttload of airplay.
So will "Apologize" finally reach No. 1? The problem for Timba and 1R—as we've chronicled here before—is that practically no other format is playing the song (no R&B/hip-hop, no modern rock), which means "Apologize" is charting with one hand and several other limbs tied behind its back. Actually, there is one format catching on: the ever-late-blooming adult-contemporary, where the song resides just outside the Top 20. Trouble is, AC is rapidly becoming an all-holiday format right now, so the song's airplay boost is modest. The song posts a small increase in sales, which helps a bit, but ranked third among all digital sellers behind Alicia's smash and Flo Rida's "Low," "Apologize" is still down 40-50,000 copies on the competition.
Bottom line: with "Low" seeming to slow down and "Apologize" having a tough fight to go the last mile, Alicia Keys will probably be sitting pretty through much of the holiday season. Which is appropriate, in a year where the ladies mostly dominated the gents on the singles charts.
That Was the Year That Was: We've spent most of this week debating the year-end album lists that have materialized from music rags. But while most critics still have a chance over the next month to make last-minute tweaks to their ballots, as far as Billboard's concerned, 2007 has been over since around Thanksgiving.
For decades now, Billboard has defined the "chart year" differently from the calendar year: it runs from the previous December 1 to the current November 30. (That's so they can run a big year-end issue the week before Christmas, before everybody disappears from their offices for the holiday.) This weird temporal skew means a couple of things for chart geeks.
First, based on what we already know, we can start predicting what the No. 1 song of the year will be before Billboard makes it official in about three weeks.
Second, the timing means bad news for songs that peaked in the summer or later, and good news for songs that peaked as much as a year ago.
For some context, here's a list of Billboard's No. 1 song of each year for the last 20 years, followed by the date the song actually peaked on the Hot 100:
1987: Bangles, "Walk Like an Egyptian" (20 Dec 1986)
1988: George Michael, "Faith" (12 Dec 1987)
1989: Chicago, "Look Away" (10 Dec 1988)
1990: Wilson Phillips, "Hold On" (9 June 1990)
1991: Bryan Adams, "(Everything I Do) I Do It for You" (27 July 1991)
1992: Boyz II Men, "End of the Road" (15 Aug 1992)
1993: Whitney Houston, "I Will Always Love You" (28 Nov 1992)
1994: Ace of Base, "The Sign" (12 Mar 1994)
1995: Coolio feat. L.V., "Gangsta's Paradise" (9 Sep 1995)
1996: Los Del Rio, "Macarena (Bayside Boys mix)" (3 Aug 1996)
1997: Elton John, "Candle in the Wind 1997"/"Something About the Way You Look Tonight" (11 Oct 1997)
1998: Next, "Too Close" (25 Apr 1998)
1999: Cher, "Believe" (13 Mar 1999)
2000: Faith Hill, "Breathe" (22 Apr 2000)
2001: Lifehouse, "Hanging by a Moment" (16 June 2001)
2002: Nickelback, "How You Remind Me" (22 Dec 2001)
2003: 50 Cent, "In da Club" (8 Mar 2003)
2004: Usher feat. Lil Jon and Ludacris, "Yeah!" (28 Feb 2004)
2005: Mariah Carey, "We Belong Together" (4 June 2005)
2006: Daniel Powter, "Bad Day" (8 Apr 2006)
Notice anything? (Besides the overwhelming suckitude. I mean, Chicago in 1989? What was up with that? Ewwwww.) Fully 60% of these year-demolishing songs peaked before June 1, the midpoint of Billboard's chart year; in fact, a sizeable minority (five, or 25%) peaked before the prior year was even over. And out of the remaining eight that peaked after June 1, half had started scaling the Hot 100 by at least late winter or early spring. (Of the outliers, three—by Bryan Adams, Boyz II Men and Coolio—exploded late and fast thanks to their inclusion in hit summer movies. The major outlier, Elton John's Princess Di-fueled 1997 monster, is an exception to chart history on so many levels it's barely worth discussing here.)
The less obvious pattern—the kind of thing nerds like me only notice after years of chart-following—is that the big year-end winners tend not to be the sudden exploders but the slow-growers. A long stay at No. 1 helps, certainly (six of the above songs stayed in the penthouse for a double-digit number of weeks). But it's not essential. Just over half of the above spent five weeks or less at the top, and two of them (by Faith Hill and Lifehouse) never went to No. 1 for even a single week.
So, combine all of the above information, and as far as 2007 is concerned, you're looking for a smash hit that: grew steadily on the way up; peaked as early in the year as possible (last December-February would be best); and dithered on its way back down. Here are the likely candidates, and they're almost all by women:
• Beyoncé, "Irreplaceable": The 800-booty gorilla. Spent 10 weeks on top of the charts, racking up not just huge sales but positively massive airplay totals. To us, this old-ass song is solidly '06 material, but to Billboard, its timing for the '07 charts was near-flawless, as it just started its long run at No. 1 by mid-December. It wasn't a longevity champ or anything, but it definitely took its time coming down. The presumptive favorite.
• Avril Lavigne, "Girlfriend": The Energizer Bunny. Materialized in the Top 10 in March and then—as Matos noted in one of his fun "Project X" family polls—stayed there for some five months, a staggering run in the winner's circle. Only spent a single week at No. 1 but was just so consistent week to week.
• Gwen Stefani feat. Akon, "The Sweet Escape": All about timing. It never went to No. 1, but it peaked at No. 2 in a long, ideally timed chart run starting in late winter, cresting in April and still holding as late as September. Amassed big sales points and consistent airplay throughout its run. And let's face it, it's your drugstore-checkout-line fungus of the year: "OOH-ooh...WHEEEEE!!-ooh..."
• Rihanna feat. Jay-Z, "Umbrella": The consensus pop song of the year. A seven-week Hot 100 champ, but more challenged than it might appear. Sales were huge and airplay was very strong, but it exploded too quickly, shooting to No. 1 from outside the Top 40 in a single week thanks almost entirely to its iTunes debut. Airplay peaked later than sales and ended up quite strong. But don't be surprised if this places lower in the year-end survey than you expect.
• T-Pain feat. Yung Joc, "Buy U a Drank (Shawty Snappin')": Apres moi, le deluge. For all his featured-vocal credits, the Painmeister's biggest 2007 hit was his own, and like Avril's hit, it hung around the chart's upper reaches forever. Its run up the chart was a little slower than the fall back down, but it was well-timed and fueled by both Top 40 and heavy R&B airplay.
• Plain White T's, "Hey There Delilah": The stealth bomb. Positively crawled up the list most of the winter and spring before finally emerging as a mid-summer smash, and its iTunes sales and adult-contemporary airplay can't have hurt. Big hits by earnest white boys have pulled major upsets before (Lifehouse, Nickelback), and this one has real potential to do the same.
• Fergie, "Big Girls Don't Cry": The hit that wouldn't die. Fergie's had a huge year on the Hot 100 in general, but most of her hits have been short-lived (e.g., "Glamorous," which went to No. 1 last March—I defy anyone to hum a few bars to me now). "Girls," however, with its big crossover to A/C radio, is the major exception, and its relatively slow rise and slow-back-down chart run is textbook for a year-end favorite. Only its late-spring-through-fall timing might keep it from the crown. Hell, take a look below—it's still clinging to the bottom of the Top 20 as we speak.
Stuff to Watch: Staying focused on yearly charts instead of weekly ones, here's one last, and slightly depressing, piece of advice—take a good look at what's leading the Hot 100 this week. You think you're sick of "No One" and "Apologize" now? We'll be talking about them a year hence—they'll probably be among the top Billboard hits of 2008. Talk about a meal that repeats on you...
This week's top 20, with last week's position and total weeks charted in parentheses:
1. Alicia Keys, "No One" (LW No. 1, 12 weeks)
2. Timbaland feat. OneRepublic, "Apologize" (LW No. 3, 17 weeks)
3. Chris Brown feat. T-Pain, "Kiss Kiss" (LW No. 2, 11 weeks)
4. Flo Rida feat. T-Pain, "Low" (LW No. 4, 5 weeks)
5. Soulja Boy, "Crank That (Soulja Boy), Soulja Boy Tell'em" (LW No. 6, 20 weeks)
6. Colbie Caillat, "Bubbly" (LW No. 5, 22 weeks)
7. Fergie, "Clumsy" (LW No. 8, 7 weeks)
8. Kanye West feat. T-Pain, "Good Life" (LW No. 7, 11 weeks)
9. Rihanna feat. Ne-Yo, "Hate That I Love You" (LW No. 12, 13 weeks)
10. Baby Bash feat. T-Pain, "Cyclone" (LW No. 9, 18 weeks)
11. Finger Eleven, "Paralyzer" (LW No. 11, 25 weeks)
12. Jordin Sparks, "Tattoo" (LW No. 16, 9 weeks)
13. Kanye West, "Stronger" (LW No. 10, 18 weeks)
14. Timbaland feat. Keri Hilson & D.O.E., "The Way I Are" (LW No. 13, 26 weeks)
15. matchbox twenty, "How Far We've Come" (LW No. 15, 13 weeks)
16. J. Holiday, "Bed" (LW No. 14, 19 weeks)
17. Playaz Circle feat. Lil Wayne, "Duffle Bag Boy " (LW No. 22, 10 weeks)
18. Daughtry, "Over You" (LW No. 19, 16 weeks)
19. The-Dream, "Shawty is a 10" (LW No. 18, 12 weeks)
20. Fergie, "Big Girls Don't Cry" (LW No. 17, 32 weeks)
Comments
It's incredible how for the late 90s early 00s, none of the #1 songs were from sucktacular (hehe) pop princes and princesses. I guess they were less ubiquitous than I thought.
Outstanding as always, Sir denisobell.
I'm curious to know where "The Way You Move" and "Hey Ya!" ended up on the 2003 & 2004 charts [somewhat bad timing on their parts, eh?].
As for 2007, my heart is with "Umbrella", but I suspect you're right that "Irreplaceable" is the likely winner.
Addendum: as predicted here last week, the AC holiday onslaught finally kills off Carrie Underwood's "Before He Cheats" -- it's gone. The song goes down in history with 64 chart weeks, third place behind LeAnn Rimes and (grr!) Jewel.
@rhythmchyc: I suspect the reason(s) for this are something like the following...
"...Baby One More Time", "Genie In A Bottle", "Bye Bye Bye" and their ilk were laser-targeted at a specific demographic and got little airplay on non-Top 40 radio*. Also, the record companies had all-but stopped releasing individual "singles", and digital stores such as the iTMS did not yet exist. So the only way to get these songs [legally] was to buy the entire CD.
That last fact also explains a phenomenon which further negatively affected the chart impact of these songs. I call it "the TRL effect". Videos could stick around on the TRL charts for [at that time] only 65 days. Do the math on that and you'll find that's essentially only 3 months of M-F programming. Do you remember how TRL-dominating artists like Britney, the Backstreet Boys, and 'Nsync always had their next video to go, like, the day after their videos were "retired" from TRL? The record companies needed to keep the CD's momentum going to keep sales going. Radio, of course, could continue playing the "old" song after the new video was released, but they would soon be inundated with requests to play the "new" song instead. So these songs didn't stick around on radio for too long either.
So, no individual single sales plus maybe 3-4 months of radio play -- limited in scope, tho ubiquitous within a certain realm -- means no year-end chart dominance.
*Only a few of these artists got any kind of love from more "mainstream" or "adult" radio stations. BSB and 98 Degrees come to mind as the most likely to be heard on, say, AC radio for some of their more "adult"-sounding ballads.
I don't think you're wrong in your prediction that Beyonce or Rihanna or Fergie will have the song of the year, but I'm not sure I understand exactly where you're getting 2007 as "a year where the ladies mostly dominated the gents on the singles charts." By my count, 12 of the eligible period's 18 chart-toppers on the Hot 100 (for roughly 30 of the past 52 weeks) were songs where the primary artist is male, or a male-fronted group. Is there some criteria (songs that peaked elsewhere in the top 10/20, the male/female ratio of other years) you're basing your statement on that goes against what those figures show?
@DHMBIB: I don't remember where it ended up exactly, but I seem to recall it placed quite a ways below No. 1 (I vaguely recall the bottom half of the year-end Top 10? would have to look that up).
"Hey Ya!" should've been a big finisher on the 2004 list, as its timing was seemingly perfect from Billboard's perspective: reached No. 1 in Dec. '03, spent eight weeks at No. 1. But you and I remember what happened when we all OD'd on "Hey Ya!": lovable as it was, when it was done saturating the airwaves, we all -- radio, too -- ran away from it fast. (The critics who loved it, like me, voted for it on their 2003 singles ballots; we were pretty sick of it by spring '04, too.) So basically, it dropped too fast, and then the Usher/Lil Jon smash came along in February and laid waste to everything in its path: 12 weeks at No. 1, gobs of airplay, a slow drop.
(Sales weren't a factor on the Hot 100 in 2004; iTunes existed, but Billboard hadn't folded it into the chart yet. That's another thing that hurt "Hey Ya!" which held the record as all-time biggest digital-single seller for a couple of years. None of those sales counted.)
@GovernmentNames: Fair points. My basic point is that the hits had by women were bigger and longer-lasting than virtually anything the guys put out. Sure, Maroon5 and Soulja Boy had huge hits, but they both rose too fast to be a factor in this race (and Soulja Boy's massive hit probably peaked too late for this year). I will happily eat crow if the final chart proves me wrong, however.
One exception I should've mentioned was Timbaland's long-lasting "The Way I Are," but even that reads on the radio as a virtual male-female duet.
@dennisobell: Big hits by earnest white boys have pulled major upsets before (Lifehouse...
Also, if you had put me on the spot and made me guess for 2001, I probably would've said "I Hope You Dance", which seemed as ubiquitous as "Breathe" was a year earlier.
@DHMBIB So so true. Definitely didn't take those factors into consideration.
If you will, please help with this conundrum: 2) how are several songs released at the same time to radio for different genres? i.e. Justin Timberlake's "Until the End of Time" on urban and "Summer Love" on Top40. 2) What is with official singles being dropped but when they don't get played, the station chooses to play another album cut like 2 weeks after the release? i.e. 50 Cent's/Robin Thicke's nonexistent but official "Follow my Lead" vs. 50's/Akon's "I Still Kill"?
xoxo
@rhythmchyc: Parallel single releases at different formats have happened for years, especially with pop vs. R&B. I remember (god, really dating myself) back in the '80s, off Whitney Houston's first album, there was a whole Top 10 R&B hit ("All at Once") which wasn't even promoted to Top 40 radio and never appeared on the Hot 100.
More recently, the handlers for Nickelback -- they of the why-isn't-dead-yet, multi-hit-spinning All the Right Reasons -- promoted several of that album's hits only to rock radio, and often only "Active/Mainstream" rock (the band's label doesn't need to bother with Modern Rock much anymore).
Often what's useful about a label breaking a more marginal record at a niche format first is they get to soften the ground for crossover to Top 40 later. JT's "Until the End..." sounded like an old-school buppie slow jam, but it did so well at R&B radio that Jive clearly surmised they could cross it over to Top 40 with the Beyonce vocal added.
As for radio going its own way with choosing album cuts, that's way more common in the last decade now that Billboard doesn't require a single release for Hot 100 purposes. It happened in "the old days" (Madonna scored big airplay in the '80s on several non-single cuts, esp. "Where's the Party" and "Spotlight"), but it's more visible now, because anything radio's playing or consumers are downloading is chart-eligible. In 2002, Nelly's followup to "Hot in Herre" wasn't even chosen yet when radio stations forced the label's hand by jumping early on the Kelly Rowland duet. It ended up being an even bigger hit than "Herre."
@Dennisobell Thanks a bunch!
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