Idolator

Factoring into my vote above (between 100K and 130K):

• If the Shins can do 100K, with a similar setup (SNL, etc.), AF should be able to match; in fact...

• They have an even more rabid fanbase than Shins do; BUT...

• It's not as mainstream/pop a fanbase as Shins' is. And no Garden State soundtrack giving them a boost in yuppieville/suburbia.

Still, they should be able to break into the low six figures.

The one question you don't ask is whether it stands a chance at #1, but unlike the Shins situation (where I, and others, didn't see Pretty Ricky coming), I think it's easy to say AF can't hope for more than #2 - the Korn record, even if it is a mediocre MTV Unplugged, will probably do nearly 200K, at least.

Does anything sell more than 100,000 copies anymore?

Personally, I still feel like The Arcade Fire are a fringe band. They're like Belle & Sebastian. One of those bands you know so well, and everyone you know knows them too, and you think they are huge because they have to be, but then an album comes out and does some modest business, and you realize that "oh yeah, they're not that big afterall".

The honest truth is I can't name any Arcade Fire songs. I listen to the first album all the time, but I couldn't tell you what the songs are called. And that, to me, says a lot about their popularity. Especially since I can tell you the whole tracklisting of albums I've never ever heard.

Oh hey... are we just talking about the US sales figures? Cause I think it will sell much better in the UK than the States, and if you factor in Canada, where Arcade Fire are a household name, that should stack the books quite a bit.

Yeah, I'll bet they sell twice as many records in Canada.

But there's only about 30 people that actually live in Canada so...

Sorry@More Often Wrong: Yeah, U.S. figures. Sorry.

Tons of records still sell 100K records. And this one will probably do 70 or 80K, though I think the comparison to the Shins doesn't work - my folks tell me Arcade Fire shipped about 140K for street date (compared to 230K for the Shins), and they don't have commercial radio airplay or MTV presence yet - the Shins had both by street date of their records. However, the Arcade Fire are a better band with a ridulously awesome live show, which should be good for something. Also I imagine their percentage of digital sales will be as high, if not higher, than the Shins'. If this record had come out two years ago, I would have guessed 40K, but these days, indie records are so front-loaded that I've got to double that.

@mreasy: Good point about the ship total. 140K is pretty anemic if they hope to move 100K in a week. That's why Sub Pop is Sub Pop and Merge is, still, Merge.

Whoops! Did I say Korn would do 200K? Huh-huh, I guess they're more "over" than I thought - HITS has them at just 60K...
but they're still predicting a tough fight for Arcade Fire, because of, surprise! the Relient K record.